Author | Kamran Ashraf Bhat 
Kupwara – For the first time in its political history, the Kupwara constituency is witnessing a fiercely competitive and unpredictable election. With no clear frontrunner in sight, the race for the seat promises to be tightly contested, with all candidates enjoying substantial voter bases. The outcome is expected to be decided by a narrow margin, with swing votes playing a decisive role just days before the election.
Unlike previous elections, where the race often leaned in favor of a single candidate, this year’s contest is shaping up to be a battle of inches. The swing voters, who are yet to commit to any side, are anticipated to be the ultimate kingmakers, with their last-minute decisions likely determining the winner. These undecided votes, combined with the candidates’ nearly equal popularity, are keeping the outcome uncertain.
In particular, the influence of Engineer Rashid, whose party, the Awami Ittihad Party (AIP), has been campaigning vigorously across the valley, is reshaping the traditional voting patterns in Kupwara. His grassroots outreach across the farthest corners of Kashmir has the potential to alter the dynamics of this election, regardless of the established popularity of other candidates.
The Spotlight Investigative and Research Team has conducted a comprehensive analysis of the political landscape in Kupwara. Based on current developments, here is an in-depth look at the leading candidates and the key challenges they face in securing victory:
Nasir Aslam Wani – National Conference
Running on a National Conference (NC) ticket, Nasir Aslam Wani finds himself in a critical position after the Jammu and Kashmir assembly constituencies were redrawn in recent delimitation efforts. His candidacy for Kupwara presents a strategic opportunity to re-establish his political relevance, following challenges to his popularity in Amira Kadal, where his rapport with the NC voter base had weakened.
For Nasir, the Kupwara seat holds both personal and political significance. His ancestral roots in Lolab, a part of Kupwara district, have allowed him to lay claim to a constituency where he hopes to forge a new political identity. In the two years since his candidacy was announced, Nasir has worked diligently to connect with the NC cadre, making steady progress. However, despite his efforts, a sizable portion of the voter base—critical for victory—remains unconvinced by his narrative and hesitant to rally behind him.
With the formidable party structure of the National Conference behind him and the party’s longstanding conventional voter base in Kupwara, Nasir Aslam Wani is not an easy contender to defeat. His challenge, however, lies in overcoming the perception of being an outsider. While his deep roots in Kupwara provide some leverage, Nasir has struggled to shake off the image of someone who primarily belongs to another constituency. For the past two years, he has immersed himself in local life, attending funerals, wedding ceremonies, and community events, striving to integrate with the people of Kupwara.
Despite these efforts, Nasir’s campaign is still grappling with this outsider image, which his rivals are exploiting in their speeches and public messaging. His opponents have successfully cast doubt on his connection to the constituency, and so far, Nasir’s counter-narratives have failed to gain significant traction. Unless his public relations team can effectively dispel this perception in the final days before the election, Nasir’s chances of winning could be severely hampered by this lingering doubt among voters.
The stakes are high for Nasir Aslam Wani, as he navigates these challenges. Although he has made strides in embedding himself within the local community, his ability to convert these efforts into a winning strategy remains to be seen. The battle for the swing vote will be crucial, and unless he can effectively overcome the outsider label, it may prove to be the barrier that prevents him from securing the seat.
In a race as tight as this, every move, speech, and voter interaction will count, with the final decision likely resting on a small, yet critical, portion of the electorate who have yet to make up their minds.
Sajjad Gani Lone – President of J&K People’s Conference (JKPC)
Sajjad Gani Lone, the current president of the Jammu and Kashmir People’s Conference (JKPC), is a well-known political figure in the region, considered by his core supporters as the natural successor to his late father, Abdul Gani Lone. Sajjad has earned a reputation for defying the odds in a politically charged and conflict-ridden environment, where navigating through the turmoil has never been easy. His journey to political prominence has been marked by challenges from all sides, yet he has emerged as a significant leader for those who were once emotionally tied to his father’s political activism. Sajjad Gani Lone has successfully channeled that emotional connection and helped them find a space within the mainstream political system of Jammu and Kashmir.
Despite these achievements, the current political landscape for Sajjad and his party is fraught with challenges. While Sajjad Lone remains one of the most recognizable and popular figures in the region, his political narrative seems to be faltering. Our in-depth investigation and research have revealed that many of the people who once showed unwavering support for him may be struggling with a lack of clear direction from the party. It is not that JKPC lacks ideology—rather, the ideology it presents is often seen as vague and difficult for voters to fully grasp or rally behind.
JKPC’s current slogan, “Dignity and Development,” appears frequently on posters and in speeches, but it has yet to evolve into a coherent and innovative election campaign. The party continues to rely on old rhetoric, which, while still able to draw crowds, falls short of creating the kind of emotional and political impact necessary to energize a broader voter base. Sajjad Lone’s personal charisma and his ability to gather people for his rallies remain strong. However, with the dynamics of the voter base changing rapidly, influenced heavily by emotional and populist slogans, JKPC’s campaign is struggling to maintain its relevance in an era where catchy narratives often determine electoral success.
In interactions with key party workers, there is a consistent sentiment that while they remain staunch supporters of Sajjad Gani Lone, there is a growing recognition that the burden of the campaign is resting heavily on his shoulders.
The lack of a robust team of star campaigners has left Sajjad to lead the charge almost single-handedly, and this is proving to be increasingly difficult. Although Sajjad continues to attract large crowds, the absence of additional strong voices within the party is making it harder for JKPC to sustain momentum on the campaign trail.
An unusual but worth mentioning move is Sajjad Lone’s decision to contest elections from two seats—Handwara and Kupwara. This approach highlights his underlying concerns, especially following his significant defeat in the last parliamentary election, where he finished third. That loss dealt a serious blow to his political standing, and moving directly into another election cycle is proving to be a monumental task for Sajjad Lone. His decision to contest from two constituencies seems to be a safeguard—what many see as a “Plan B” in case one front falters. While Sajjad does not face the issue of being labeled an “outsider,” the logistical and strategic demands of running campaigns in both constituencies are stretching his resources thin. His campaign now resembles a firefight, as he struggles to maintain focus on two major fronts.
A critical misstep during the last parliamentary election was allowing Altaf Bukhari’s support, as Bukhari’s J&K Apni Party was grappling with a severe image crisis, particularly due to allegations of ties with the BJP. Had Sajjad Lone anticipated the backlash from aligning with such elements, the fallout could have been minimized. This political blunder significantly hurt his credibility and is still reverberating in the current election cycle.
Adding to Sajjad’s challenges is the aggressive stance taken by Engineer Rashid, who has launched an unrelenting campaign against Sajjad Gani Lone. Rashid’s attacks have forced JKPC into a defensive position, and the party has struggled to present a strong counter-narrative. As things stand, Sajjad’s campaign in Kupwara appears to be in troubled waters, with shifting political tides preventing him from gaining solid ground. Although he remains a strong contender in Handwara, where his party’s presence is more pronounced, the situation in Kupwara is far from stable, and Sajjad Gani Lone is in for a tough battle.
Fayaz Ahmed Mir – JKPDP Candidate in Kupwara Constituency
Fayaz Ahmed Mir, contesting on a JKPDP ticket in the Kupwara constituency, is currently experiencing a surge in voter support. Our analysis of the current political atmosphere reveals that Fayaz Ahmed Mir is performing better than any of his competitors in terms of voter popularity. The political winds seem to be blowing in his favor, and this has allowed him to gain substantial momentum in the race. One of the key narratives that has resonated with the electorate is Fayaz’s strong local roots. This “local candidate” image has played a pivotal role in his campaign, especially when compared with his rival, Nasir Aslam Wani. Voters have essentially framed the competition between the two as a battle for local representation, with Fayaz Ahmed Mir emerging as the candidate more deeply connected to the constituency.
Another advantage working in Fayaz’s favor is the strong familial support he enjoys. His brothers, who hold influence in the community, have been actively campaigning on his behalf, leveraging their networks to rally voters. It is noteworthy that a significant portion of Fayaz Ahmed Mir’s voter base does not consist of traditional JKPDP supporters. Many of these voters are not necessarily aligned with the Mufti family, which has long been synonymous with JKPDP’s leadership. Instead, they are drawn to Fayaz Ahmed Mir personally, supporting him because of his deep local ties and not out of loyalty to the broader party leadership.
However, Fayaz Mir’s political journey is not without its challenges. His memory of the 2013 election, where National Conference (NC) successfully divided his vote base and allowed Bashir Dar of JKPC to win, remains a cautionary tale. A similar scenario could unfold in the current election, as Engineer Rashid’s Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) poses a serious threat to all candidates in the race. Rashid’s rise has been fueled by his ability to attract a new and unpredictable voter base, which showed its strength during the last parliamentary election when he secured an impressive win. Fayaz Ahmed Mir must navigate this shifting voter landscape, where swing votes could potentially disrupt his campaign and tilt the outcome in favor of his rivals.
Despite these concerns, early trends indicate that Fayaz Ahmed Mir is in a strong position to secure the first spot in the election. But the looming threat of AIP remains significant, and if Engineer Rashid manages to galvanize enough voters, Fayaz’s lead could be in jeopardy. The unpredictability of the current political climate in Kupwara means that while Fayaz Ahmed Mir is currently leading, the situation could change rapidly as the election campaign heats up.
If Fayaz Ahmed Mir manages to withstand the challenge posed by Engineer Rashid and the unpredictability of the swing vote, he has a good chance of winning, albeit by a narrow margin. However, the increasing intensity of the political storm—fueled by the rising popularity of AIP—could present an insurmountable challenge. Only time will tell whether Fayaz Ahmed Mir’s deep-rooted connections in Kupwara will be strong enough to withstand the political upheaval caused by AIP’s growing influence in the region.
Firdous Baba – AIP Candidate for Kupwara Constituency Election
Firdous Baba, a young associate of Engineer Rashid and candidate representing the Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) in the Kupwara constituency, was relatively unknown outside media circles and his close-knit family before the party announced his candidacy for the upcoming assembly election. While he still lacks the widespread recognition necessary to attract a significant voter base to the booths, Baba is gradually learning the intricacies of political leadership and evolving into a more polished, conventional candidate. His quiet, introverted personality, coupled with minimal media exposure, has kept him largely behind the scenes. This lack of public presence, especially in the crucial arena of social media, is proving to be a significant challenge and could carry serious consequences for his campaign.
However, Firdous Baba remains a deserving candidate for AIP, particularly given his steadfast support for the party during challenging times. After the abrogation of Article 370 and the subsequent arrest of Engineer Rashid, Baba single-handedly managed AIP’s public relations in North Kashmir, especially in Kupwara, even though media coverage did not give him the attention he warranted. Despite this, what Engineer Rashid likely expects from Baba now is the ability to create a public image for himself that aligns with AIP’s values, and to introduce himself to voters across a broad spectrum of communication channels.
As it stands, Firdous Baba may not be able to secure a substantial number of votes on his own; his primary hope lies in the possibility that Engineer Rashid’s established influence and the wave of swing votes will work in his favor. The political narrative surrounding AIP remains strong—there is a palpable sentiment among voters, driven by lingering resentment over the abrogation of Article 370, and a youth base already energized by Rashid’s rhetoric. The missing piece in Baba’s campaign is a more robust media presence and public outreach, which could elevate his popularity.
Although Firdous Baba may not yet be widely recognized, his association with the AIP’s popular narrative is significant and could help him make electoral history. The voting pattern in Kupwara is deeply fragmented, with no major party commanding a dominant voter base. This dynamic provides an opportunity for AIP’s candidate to turn the tide in his favor, especially with support from the youth and a large section of the population that has traditionally remained silent and abstained from voting. The anticipated turnout from this “boycott vote,” likely to be bolstered by support from Jamaat-e-Islami, could prove pivotal in altering the election’s trajectory.
At present, AIP’s voter base is unpredictable, yet it holds the potential to disrupt the political landscape, threatening to upend the campaigns of more established political players.
Note: This analysis is purely an observation of political activities in Kupwara, and perspectives may vary for independent thinkers. While there is no clear majority, the silent appeal of AIP’s narrative is playing a critical role in shaping local dynamics.
